The B2Gold Contradiction

Mining Stock Monkey VIP

Investment Memo #117

February 20, 2026

I sent out yesterday’s B2Gold update before the markets opened, but the real story was revealed when the executive team faced the analysts on the Q4 earnings call.

If you only read the official Q4 MD&A, you’d think their flagship Goose mine is on a glide path to becoming a steady-state cash cow by January 1st, 2027.

But if you listen closely to the logistical hurdles management confessed to on the call, a different and more expensive timeline emerges.

Simply put: B2Gold’s official Q4 filings contradict management’s candid comments during the Q&A.

B2Gold (NYSE:BTG; TSX: BTO)

The markets opened with the stock down ~11% when I first looked, but after the earnings call, there was some strength in the share price, ending the day down less than 5%.

My read on the operational bottlenecks was highly accurate: I predicted the mobile crusher failures, the horrible 2026 guidance, the production cliff at Fekola, the revised 200,000 ounce guidance at Goose, and the delay in a permanent fix for the crusher. However, my expectation of a severe, immediate market sell-off proved incorrect.

Why wasn’t the market reaction more intense?

I’m not sure. Maybe the big institutional money had already sniffed out some of these exact problems and priced them into the stock before we got the official numbers. Regardless, our fundamental analysis was spot on.